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The India Meteorological Department has predicted a normal June-to-September monsoon this year, but even in areas where the monsoon has indeed come, there’ve been shortcomings.

According to the latest available data from the agriculture ministry, total Kharif crop acreage was 6.6 million hectares as of June 10, down 28% from the 8.5 million hectares sown during the same period the previous year.

The planting of vital Kharif, or summer-sown crops, has been hindered by an uneven monsoon, with rainfall falling by 32 percent in the first fortnight of the rainy season, which began on June 1. A scarcity of diesel, a critical component for irrigating crops, is also affecting farm operations, according to farmers.

This year, equally distributed rains are important to increasing food production in the face of a world food deficit. Food costs have jumped sharply as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, roiling several economies, including India’s, as delays add to the already-strained supply of wheat, edible oil, and another foodstuff. The country is looking for a strong farm output this year, thanks to a regular monsoon for the fourth year in a row, to offset the economic effects of the coronavirus epidemic and high food import costs.

The annual inflation rate dropped slightly in May from a year ago to 7.04 percent, down from an eight-year high of 7.8 percent in April, but prices remained above the Reserve Bank of India’s upper target of 6% for the fifth month in a row. Food price increases account for about 75% of the increase in inflation.

Roughly half of India’s annual food production comes from Kharif crops. Farmers planted rice in 0.64 million hectares as of June 10, down 1.5 percent from 0.59 million hectares in the year-ago corresponding period, according to the latest available weekly area-coverage data from the agriculture ministry for kharif crops.

Pulse planting has been reduced by 37.5 percent, with farmers allowed to plant only 0.2 million hectares so far, compared to 0.27 million hectares last year. According to the report, acreage for arhar, a widely consumed pulse, has lagged the most by 70% among lentils.

When the rains reach the mainland, analysts predict that sowing will pick up.

Because approximately 60% of the country’s net sown area is not irrigated and half of the population relies on farm-derived income, the monsoon is crucial for Asia’s third-largest economy. Rain also replenishes about 100 nationally significant reservoirs, which are necessary for drinking, electricity generation, and irrigation.

For a variety of summer crops like rice, oilseeds, pulses, millets, sugarcane, and cotton, millions of farmers rely on rain.

“While timely rains are crucial, the kharif season is just getting started, and there is a large sowing window ahead.” Sowing will increase, but big intervals between two strong monsoon cycles may have an influence on yields, according to Deepali Choudhary, a former scientist with the Indian Council of Agricultural Research.

Sowing of coarse cereals was 0.31 million hectares, down 43 percent from last year’s 0.45 million hectares, while oilseeds were planted on 0.13 million hectares, down 47 percent from last year’s 0.19 million hectares.

Due to an increase in demand, many regions are experiencing fuel shortages, with Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Uttarakhand, Gujarat, and Haryana being the hardest hit. “To acquire diesel, there are long lines.” “Everyone is trying to stock up since there are rumours of a shortage this year,” said Karan Singh, a farmer with the Krantikari Kisan Union in Punjab’s Ferozepur region.

Good summer crops, which improve rural income, are critical to the economy’s overall health and price stability. India’s wheat output was lowered by at least 5% from earlier predictions of 111 million tonnes in March due to a protracted heatwave, causing the country to halt exports.